Expert Analysis: Environmental Change, Conflict, and Human Migration in the Mediterranean Basin

Chapter 5. Understanding the environment-migration nexus in the Mediterranean

Executive summary

The links between environmental factors and migration are complex and characterised by non-linearities and high context-dependency. Environmental migration is strongly influenced by local socio-economic and political conditions, and other co-stressors.

Most environmental migration is internal and over short distances, although migration over longer distances and across national borders is observed. Changes in temporary forms of mobility are common in response to environmental changes.

The complexity of the issues and the insufficiency of data make it difficult to empirically assess environmental impacts on migration, and to project future mobility under environmental change.

Existing evidence points to nuanced links between environmental factors and migration in the Mediterranean region. Different areas and sub-populations are affected to different extents.

Vulnerability to environmental hazards plays a decisive role in shaping the impacts of environmental changes. A large proportion of populations affected by environmental change remain immobile. While some are not motivated to leave their home, others may lack resources to do so, resulting in potential entrapment.

Drought, aridity, and land degradation are important environmental hazards in the Mediterranean region, with major implications for human mobility. They can potentially lead to more permanent forms of movement.

Environmental factors are not only relevant for mobility within the Mediterranean, but they can also shape mobility to the region. The Mediterranean is an important transit and destination region with most migrants moving to urban areas.

How to cite the report

Koubi, V., Hoffmann, R., Badre, A., Benveniste, H., Ilik Bilben, M.S., Šedová, B., 2026: Understanding the environment and migration nexus in the Mediterranean. In: Environmental change, conflict, and human migration in the Mediterranean Basin. [Lange, M.A.; Majdalani, R.; Cramer, W.; Guiot, J.; Gattacceca, J.C., Marini, K. (eds.)]. MedECC Secretariat, Marseille, France, pp. 159-183. doi: 10.5281/zenodo.17974655

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