Scientific Watch – Winter 2023 – 2024

As part of our mission, we provide regular updates on the latest scientific publications concerning climate and environmental change, along with scientific news from the Mediterranean region. Through our scientific watch initiative, we aim to keep you informed about the most recent developments in climate science and environmental research.


Weed management in agriculture is hampered by inefficient intensive methods, such as monoculture, deep plowing, and herbicides, leading to health and environmental problems. Furthermore, the prevalence of herbicide-resistant weed ecotypes in the Mediterranean, particularly in France (with over 61 ecotypes), Spain (41), and Italy (37), is a major concern, with a significant proportion of herbicides in the region. In this study, we examined the benefits of adopting agroecology as a sustainable approach for weed management in the Mediterranean region. Agroecology offers a variety of techniques and practices to improve sustainability and weed management, while preserving ecological balance and biodiversity. However, solving these challenges is multifactorial and depends on local specificities, predominant weed species, crops, sowing dates, and pedo-climatic factors. In addition, this study included a systematic analysis of agroecological weed management in Mediterranean countries, assessing the effectiveness of existing practices, and identifying areas requiring further exploration in agroecosystems. A bibliometric analysis was also included to assess the literature on agroecology and weed management quantitatively, identifying major trends, influential studies, and research gaps. The bibliometric analysis highlighted the importance of alternative herbicides in Mediterranean “weed” (with a link strength of 44), “agroecology” (22), and “biodiversity” (16). Italy has the strongest collaboration network, with a link strength of 61, followed by Turkey (44), and France (42). Using specific keywords to agroecological practices for weed management in Scopus, France worked the most in this context (around 25% of studies), followed by Spain (17%) and Italy (17%), while all other countries contributed to less than 40% of studies carried out in the Mediterranean context. Clearly, it is imperative to foster collaboration between Mediterranean countries to develop effective and sustainable weed control strategies. Understanding the challenges of herbicide-resistant weeds, exploring their reasons and mechanisms, and using systematic studies and bibliometric analyses will help to develop effective strategies for managing weeds in the Mediterranean. Agroecological management favors effective control, while promoting healthy and sustainable ecosystems, preserving biodiversity, and ensuring long-term food security.


Agroecological weed management; Herbicide-resistant weeds; Intensive weed control; Mediterranean-farming landscapes; Sustainability

Boutagayout A, Bouiamrine EH, Synowiec A, Oihabi KE, Romero P, Rhioui W, Nassiri L, Belmalha S. Agroecological practices for sustainable weed management in Mediterranean farming landscapes. Environ Dev Sustain (2023). doi: 10.1007/s10668-023-04286-7

Büntgen U, Reinig F, Verstege A, Piermattei A, Kunz M, Krusic P, Slavin P, Štěpánek P, Torbenson M, del Castillo EM, Arosio T. Recent summer warming over the western Mediterranean region is unprecedented since medieval times. Global and Planetary Change. 2024 Jan 1;232:104336.


  • A total 534 MXD samples from the Pyrenees cover the period 1119–2020 CE continuously.
  • An integrative ensemble approach was used to improve our highly replicated MXD record.
  • Recent warming over the western Mediterranean is unprecedented since medieval times.
  • Abrupt summer cooling of −1.5 °C in the Pyrenees followed large volcanic eruptions.
  • Less warfare and stable wheat prices in Iberia coincide with periods of warmer climate.

Carlesi L, Dudinskaya EC, Danovaro R, D’Onghia G, Mandolesi S, Naspetti S, Zanoli R. Estimating preferences for Mediterranean deep-sea ecosystem services: A discrete choice experiment. Marine Policy. 2023 May 1;151:105593.

The deep sea represents Earth’s largest (but least explored) biome. It is increasingly affected by anthropogenic stressors and climate change, which threaten the provision of essential ecosystem services. The monetary value of these benefits has rarely been assessed. High biodiversity is hosted in the deep sea and, more generally, in the oceans. This paper uses a hypothetical choice experiment to investigate Italian households’ preferences for deep-sea ecosystem services. The data show wide heterogeneity of the preferences for preserving the Mediterranean deep sea. Many respondents indicate that they would refuse to pay to support the protection of biodiversity and scientific research in this remote and unfamiliar environment. Overall, global warming was of little concern for most respondents, who would not be willing to pay to limit the increase in global temperatures. High income and formal education positively influenced the willingness of the respondents to donate to Non-Governmental Organization’s initiatives to support the Mediterranean deep sea. Deep-water corals appear more ‘charismatic’ to respondents than submarine canyons among deep-sea habitats.

García-Ibáñez MI, Guallart EF, Lucas A, Pascual J, Gasol JM, Marrase C, Calvo E, Pelejero C. Two new coastal time-series of seawater carbonate system variables in the NW Mediterranean Sea: rates and mechanisms controlling pH changes. Frontiers in Marine Science. 2024;11:1348133.

The study introduces measurements from two coastal time-series in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea: L’Estartit Oceanographic Station (EOS) and the Blanes Bay Microbial Observatory (BBMO). These data offer valuable insights into the region’s seawater carbonate system dynamics. Both time-series present pH decreasing trends similar to those observed in open ocean, highlighting the interconnectedness of coastal and open ocean  Ocean Acidification trends. The pH decreases were primarily attributed to uptake of atmospheric CO2 and warming. Notably, the increase in total Alkalinity (TA) partially buffered the pH decreases, emphasizing the complex interplay between the carbonate system variables. Despite the challenges posed by short-term variability, the presented coastal time series offer valuable insights into long-term trends in ocean acidification. This underscores the significance of long term monitoring efforts in assessing climate change impacts. (Source: Dr Maribel García-Ibáñez –

Bargagli R, Rota E. Mercury Biogeochemistry and Biomagnification in the Mediterranean Sea: Current Knowledge and Future Prospects in the Context of Climate Change. Coasts. 2024 Feb 4;4(1):89-107.

In the 1970s, the discovery of much higher mercury (Hg) concentrations in Mediterranean fish than in related species of the same size from the Atlantic Ocean raised serious concerns about the possible health effects of neurotoxic monomethylmercury (MMHg) on end consumers. After 50 years, the cycling and fluxes of the different chemical forms of the metal between air, land, and marine environments are still not well defined. However, current knowledge indicates that the anomalous Hg accumulation in Mediterranean organisms is mainly due to the re-mineralization of organic material, which favors the activity of methylating microorganisms and increases MMHg concentrations in low-oxygen waters. The compound is efficiently bio-concentrated by very small phytoplankton cells, which develop in Mediterranean oligotrophic and phosphorous-limited waters and are then transferred to grazing zooplankton. The enhanced bioavailability of MMHg together with the slow growth of organisms and more complex and longer Mediterranean food webs could be responsible for its anomalous accumulation in tuna and other long-lived predatory species. The Mediterranean Sea is a “hotspot” of climate change and has a rich biodiversity, and the increasing temperature, salinity, acidification, and stratification of seawater will likely reduce primary production and change the composition of plankton communities. These changes will likely affect the accumulation of MMHg at lower trophic levels and the biomagnification of its concentrations along the food web; however, changes are difficult to predict. The increased evasion of gaseous elemental mercury (Hg°) from warming surface waters and lower primary productivity could decrease the Hg availability for biotic (and possibly abiotic) methylation processes, but lower oxygen concentrations in deep waters, more complex food webs, and the reduced growth of top predators could increase their MMHg content. Despite uncertainties, in Mediterranean regions historically affected by Hg inputs from anthropogenic and geogenic sources, such as those in the northwestern Mediterranean and the northern Adriatic Sea, rising seawater levels, river flooding, and storms will likely favor the mobilization of Hg and organic matter and will likely maintain high Hg bioaccumulation rates for a long time. Long-term studies will, therefore, be necessary to evaluate the impact of climate change on continental Hg inputs in the Mediterranean basin, on air–sea exchanges, on possible changes in the composition of biotic communities, and on MMHg formation and its biomagnification along food webs. In this context, to safeguard the health of heavy consumers of local seafood, it appears necessary to develop information campaigns, promote initiatives for the consumption of marine organisms at lower trophic levels, and organize large-scale surveys of Hg accumulation in the hair or urine of the most exposed population groups.

Keywords: biogeochemical cycle; biomagnification; climate change; marine food webs; Mediterranean Sea; mercury

Joel Guiot, Nicolas Bernigaud, Alberte Bondeau, Laurent Bouby, and Wolfgang Cramer, Clim. Past, 19, 1219–1244,, 2023

The potential areal extent of agricultural crops is sensitive to climate change and its underlying drivers. To distinguish between the drivers of past variations in the Mediterranean viticulture extension since Early Antiquity and improve projections for the future, we propose an original attribution method based on an emulation of offline coupled climate and ecosystem models. The emulator connects the potential productivity of grapevines to global direct and indirect climate drivers, notably orbital parameters, solar and volcanic activities, demography, and greenhouse gas concentrations. This approach is particularly useful to place the evolution of future agrosystems in the context of their past variations. We found that variations in potential area for viticulture during the last 3 millennia in the Mediterranean Basin were mainly due to volcanic activity, while the effects of solar activity and orbital changes were negligible. In the future, as expected, the dominating factor is the increase in greenhouse gases, causing significantly drier conditions and thus major difficulties for viticulture in Spain and North Africa. These constraints will concern significant areas of the southern Mediterranean Basin when global warming exceeds +2 ∘C above preindustrial conditions. Our experiments showed that even intense volcanic activity comparable to that of the Samalas – sometimes considered to be the starting point of the Little Ice Age in the mid-13th century – would not decrease aridity and so not slow down this decline in viticulture extension in the southern margin of the Mediterranean area. This result does not confirm the idea of geoengineering that solar radiation modification (SRM) is an efficient option to limit future global warming.

Tanarhte, M., de Vries, A. J., Zittis, G., & Chfadi, T. (2024). Severe droughts in North Africa: A review of drivers, impacts and management. Earth-Science Reviews, 250, 104701.


In the last 50 years, various parts of North Africa (NAF) have suffered devastating droughts, associated with high socio-economic impacts. This arid to semi-arid region is one of the most water-scarce areas in the world. In the context of water scarcity, many studies have focused on droughts approaching their impact from different disciplines and perspectives. However, more integrative studies covering both physical and social aspects are lacking for the region. The present study reviews drought’s physical and human drivers, the associated socio-economic impacts in NAF countries, actual adaptation and management options. We summarize and intercompare management policies implemented by NAF governments to face the severity of such events. Our review highlights a contrasting vulnerability to droughts across the NAF countries, with relatively higher impacts in the western part. Studies show a lack of consistency about the observed increase in meteorological droughts severity and frequency in various regions of NAF. However, more consistent and slightly higher increases in agricultural drought intensity have been revealed, suggesting that the atmospheric evaporative demand due to the increased evapotranspiration has contributed to augmenting the severity of agricultural and ecological droughts compared to meteorological droughts. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is linked to dry and wet episodes in Northwest Africa from daily to centennial time scales. Changes in the planetary to the regional-scale circulation have been suggested to be responsible for the past and future projected drought increase. Other anthropogenic drivers, such as land use changes, increasing water demand and irrigation, strongly affect the severity of NAF droughts. The analysis of the historical events reveals extensive impacts on agriculture, employment, food security, health and internal migration. The adaptation strategies to drought include irrigation efficiency, groundwater overexploitation and the use of non-conventional water resources such as desalinated water. Various forms of drought monitoring and early warning operate on several institutional levels under the coordination of different institutions/ministries. An improved understanding of the characteristics of droughts and their impacts in NAF countries is important to guide the transition from emergency response to more proactive policies and long-term planning, but also to assess and identify gaps in drought management capacities.”


This paper proposes how drought management may be more sustainable in the Mediterranean region in order to face climate change. This paper collects information on the extraordinary efforts to manage drought in the region, highlighting how policies and investments in data and monitoring, as well as climate change, have defined the progress of drought management efforts. These crucial efforts may not be sustainable under highly likely short-term changes in climate and society. This paper proposes to include more explicitly lessons from managing common resources and from risk management, to guide the evolution of more sustainable drought management in the Mediterranean region. This research highlights the importance of shifting towards dynamic, proactive, and adaptive drought plans, emphasizing voluntary measures, defining responsibilities, and including future scenarios in the planification. Additionally, this paper proposes the establishment of a Technical Secretariat to centralize information, coordination, and collaboration in drought management efforts.

Martin-Candilejo, Araceli, Francisco J. Martin-Carrasco, Ana Iglesias, and Luis Garrote. 2024. “Heading into the Unknown? Exploring Sustainable Drought Management in the Mediterranean Region” Sustainability 16, no. 1: 21.

Keywords: drought risk management; water scarcity; climate change adaptation; agriculture; sustainable water resource management


Keywords: Non-State Actors, Climate Change Communication, the Mediterranean, Framing Analysis


How do non-state actors frame climate change in a region labelled as a climate hotspot? To answer this question, this article explores the climate communication strategies of non-state actors with various country origins. Adopting the quantitative content analysis method, it comparatively analyses differing frame utilizations (e.g. ecological/meteorological, policy, economic and energy interests, culture, science and technology, civil society) of non-state actors in their selected climate change/global warming-related reports (n=89) on the Mediterranean. The findings provide clues on the cosmopolitan framing of non-state actors on the regional level.

İŞERİ E, BOTETZAGIAS I. Communication on Climate Change in the Mediterranean by Non-State Actors: A Framing Analysis. Altern. Polit. 2024;16(1):91-114.

Keywords: Climate change adaptation; Water infrastructure; Climate proofing; Climate risk and vulnerability assessment


Water Infrastructure (WI) is one of the most important sectors of Critical Infrastructure (CI); it encompasses drinking water, wastewater, and stormwater. The WI is vulnerable to the effects of Climate Change (CC) that can disrupt its functionality; thus, it needs to be adapted to CC, especially in the Mediterranean region, where these effects are expected to intensify during the twenty-first century. For this adaptation a Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) is required in the development of WI to identify the important climate hazards and to recommend the required measures for the adaptation of the WI to these hazards. In the present work, a CRVA methodology is developed and presented based on a literature survey and the relevant European Commission guidelines; it is structured around five key steps: (1) Description of the WI, (2) Climate change assessment, (3) Vulnerability assessment, (4) Risk assessment, and (5) Assessment of adaptation measures. The application of the methodology is illustrated indicatively to a wastewater system in Greece for which preliminary estimations are performed, results are discussed, and conclusions are drawn. The proposed methodology can be modified for application to other sectors of CI; moreover, is a valuable resource in academic curricula and ongoing research initiatives.

Stamou, A., Mitsopoulos, G. & Koutroulis, A. Proposed Methodology for Climate Change Adaptation of Water Infrastructures in the Mediterranean Region. Environ. Process. 11, 12 (2024).

Keywords: Paramuricea clavata; Eunicella cavolinii; Eunicella singularis; Global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis (GSUA); Machine learning (ML); Species distribution models (SDM)


Multiple stressors, including global warming, increasingly threaten the distribution and abundance of gorgonian forests. We built species distribution models (SDM) combined with machine learning algorithms to compare the ecological niche and distribution response to climate change under the worst IPCC scenario RCP8.5 for three Mediterranean gorgonian species (Paramuricea clavata, Eunicella cavolinii and Eunicella singularis. To obtain the potential habitat suitability and future distribution projections (2040–2050), we employed three Machine Learning models (XGBoost, Random Forest and the K-nearest neighbour) which considered 23 physicochemical and 4 geophysical environmental variables. The global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis was used to identify the most important environmental variables shaping habitat suitability for each species and to disentangle the interaction terms among environmental variables. For all species, bathymetry was the primary variable influencing habitat suitability, which had strong interactions with silicate concentration, salinity, and concavity. Under predicted future climatic conditions, P. clavata is predicted to shift its habitat suitability from lower to higher latitudes, mainly in the Adriatic Sea. For both E. cavolinii and E. singularis, a general habitat reduction was predicted. In particular, E. cavolinii is expected to reduce its occupancy area by 49%, suggesting that the sensitivity of symbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) may not be the principal cause of susceptibility of this species to thermal stresses and climate change.

Bellin, N., Rossi, V. Modeling the effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of Mediterranean gorgonians. Biodivers Conserv (2024).


Sustainability rating systems for the built environment involve a multitude of indicators that are based on different types of data. This work capitalizes on an existing multicriteria assessment method and supporting decision-making tool at building and neighbourhood scale, to develop an enhanced method and tool at city scale. The main sustainability issues at building and city scales include site and infrastructure, energy and resources consumption, environmental loadings, climate change, environmental quality, water, waste, transportation, services, social aspects, economy and governance. Approximately 300 indicators distributed among the different scales are used to describe and quantify the various facets of sustainability. Specifically, the building scale includes a pool of 80 indicators of which 17 are key performance indicators (KPIs), the neighbourhood scale has 133 indicators of which 14 are KPIs and the city scale has a total of 99 indicators of which 10 are KPIs that were new additions to the existing method. The emphasis in this paper is given on elaborating the key performance indicators for cities and demonstrating their applicability through a case study. The common method and tools provide a flexible assessment system for local authorities and stakeholders to develop and assess sustainability plans.

Keywords: sustainability; method; tool; buildings; neighbourhoods; cities; indicators; key performance indicators; KPI; cesba med


Balaras CA, Droutsa KG, Dascalaki EG, Kontoyiannidis S, Moro A, Bazzan E, Borgaro P. Auditing and Rating Sustainability of Mediterranean Buildings, Neighbourhoods and Cities. 2023 Dec 22;17(1):82.

Focus on Sea Level Rise

Anzidei M, Trippanera D, Bosman A, Martin FF, Doumaz F, Vecchio A, Serpelloni E, Alberti T, Rende SF, Greco M. Relative Sea-Level Rise Projections and Flooding Scenarios for 2150 CE for the Island of Ustica (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy). Journal of Marine Science and Engineering. 2023 Oct 19;11(10):2013.

Abstract: The island of Ustica (Italy) is constantly exposed to the effects of sea-level rise, which is threatening its coastal zone. With the aim of assessing the sea levels that are anticipated by 2150 CE under the climatic projections shown in the AR6 report from the IPCC, a detailed evaluation of potential coastal flooding under different climatic scenarios and the ongoing land subsidence has been carried out for three coastal zones. Scenarios are based on the determination of the current coastline position, a high-resolution digital terrain and marine model, and the SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 climatic projections. Relative sea-level rise projections allowed the mapping of the potential inundated surfaces for 2030, 2050, 2100, and 2150. The results show rising sea levels for 2150, ranging from a minimum of 66 ± 40 cm (IPCC AR6 SSP2.6 scenario) to a maximum of 128 ± 52 cm (IPCC AR6 SSP8.5 scenario). In such conditions, considering the SSP8.5 scenario during storm surges with return times (RTs) of 1 and 100 years, the expected maximum wave run-up along the island may vary from 3 m (RT = 1) to 14 m (RT = 100), according to the coastal morphology. Our results show that adaptation and mitigation actions are required to protect the touristic and harbor installations of the island.

Keywords: Ustica Island; vertical land movements; sea level rise projections; land subsidence; flooding scenario

Falciano A, Anzidei M, Greco M, Trivigno ML, Vecchio A, Georgiadis C, Patias P, Crosetto M, Navarro J, Serpelloni E, Tolomei C. The SAVEMEDCOASTS-2 webGIS: The Online Platform for Relative Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Scenarios up to 2100 for the Mediterranean Coasts. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering. 2023 Oct 30;11(11):2071.

Abstract: Here we show the SAVEMEDCOASTS-2 web-based geographic information system (webGIS) that supports land planners and decision makers in considering the ongoing impacts of Relative Sea Level Rise (RSLR) when formulating and prioritizing climate-resilient adaptive pathways for the Mediterranean coasts. The webGIS was developed within the framework of the SAVEMEDCOASTS and SAVEMEDCOASTS-2 projects, funded by the European Union, which respond to the need to protect people and assets from natural disasters along the Mediterranean coasts that are vulnerable to the combined effects of Sea Level Rise (SLR) and Vertical Land Movements (VLM). The geospatial data include available or new high-resolution Digital Terrain Models (DTM), bathymetric data, rates of VLM, and multi-temporal coastal flooding scenarios for 2030, 2050, and 2100 with respect to 2021, as a consequence of RSLR. The scenarios are derived from the 5th Assessment Report (AR5) provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and encompass different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) for climate projections. The webGIS reports RSLR scenarios that incorporate the temporary contribution of both the highest astronomical tides (HAT) and storm surges (SS), which intensify risks to the coastal infrastructure, local community, and environment.

Keywords: WebGIS; land subsidence; sea level rise; relative sea level rise; storm surges; Mediterranean Sea; SAVEMEDCOASTS; SAVEMEDCOASTS-2

Loizidou XI, L. Orthodoxou D, I. Loizides M, Petsa D, Anzidei M. Adapting to sea level rise: participatory, solution-oriented policy tools in vulnerable Mediterranean areas. Environment Systems and Decisions. 2023 Jun 1:1-9.

Abstract: The coasts of the Mediterranean basin are exposed to the ongoing effects of climate change and anthropogenic pressure. Low elevated coastal plains, river deltas, lagoons and reclamation areas are experiencing beach retreat, coastal erosion and marine flooding. This makes them particularly vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR), which is expected to increase up to 1 m by 2100 AD, according to the projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In this study, selected stakeholders from four Mediterranean coastal areas that are highly vulnerable to the impacts of SLR have been engaged through a structured participatory process for the development of solution-oriented, case-specific and site-specific Policy Tools to address SLR. The developed Policy Tools for the Venice Lagoon, the Metaponto reclamation area and the Basento river mouth, in Italy, the Ebro River Delta in Spain, and the coastal plain of Chalastra, near the Axios River Delta, in Greece, contain relevant, effective and implementable actions stemming from stakeholder interaction and consensus building. The interconnected stakeholder engagement steps employed in this study identified relevant issues that should be considered when defining SLR adaptation policies to bridge knowledge and perception gaps, facilitate knowledge exchange and foster social learning through structured science communication on SLR. This participatory stakeholder process can lay the foundations for more extensive participation in public processes through which the resulting Policy Tools can materialise into collectively accepted, concrete actions to help vulnerable areas adapt to the expected SLR and consequent coastal hazards by the end of this century.

Solarino S, Eva E, Anzidei M, Musacchio G, De Lucia M. Is Sea Level Rise a Known Threat? A Discussion Based on an Online Survey. GeoHazards. 2023 Oct 3;4(4):367-79.

Abstract: Since the last century, global warming has been triggering sea level rise at an unprecedented rate. In the worst case climate scenario, sea level could rise by up to 1.1 m above the current level, causing coastal inundation and cascading effects, thus affecting about one billion people around the world. Though widespread and threatening, the phenomenon is not well known to citizens as it is often overshadowed by other effects of global warming. Here, we show the results of an online survey carried out in 2020–2021 to understand the level of citizens’ knowledge on sea level rise including causes, effects, exacerbation in response to land subsidence and best practice towards mitigation and adaptation. The most important result of the survey is that citizens believe that it is up to governments to take action to cope with the effects of rising sea levels or mitigate the rise itself. This occurs despite the survey showing that they actually know what individuals can do and that a failure to act poses a threat to society. Gaps and preconceptions need to be eradicated by strengthening the collaboration between scientists and schools to improve knowledge, empowering our society.
Keywords: sea level rise; survey; best practice; adaptation; mitigation; coastal inundation; Mediterranean coasts

Vecchio A, Anzidei M, Serpelloni E.  Sea level rise projections up to 2150 in the northern Mediterranean coasts. Environmental Research Letters. 2024 Jan 1;19(1):014050

Abstract: Vertical land movements (VLM) play a crucial role in affecting the sea level rise along the coasts. They need to be estimated and included in the analysis for more accurate Sea Level (SL) projections. Here we focus on the Mediterranean basin characterized by spatially variable rates of VLM that affect the future SL along the coasts. To estimate the VLM rates we used geodetic data from continuous global navigation satellite system stations with time series longer than 4.5 years in the 1996–2023 interval, belonging to Euro-Mediterranean networks and located within 5 km from the coast. Revised SL projections up to the year 2150 are provided at 265 points on a geographical grid and at the locations of 51 tide gauges of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, by including the estimated VLM in the SL projections released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the AR6 Report. Results show that the IPCC projections underestimate future SL along the coasts of the Mediterranean Sea since the effects of tectonics and other local factors were not properly considered. Here we show that revised SL projections at 2100, when compared to the IPCC, show a maximum and minimum differences of 1094 ± 103 mm and −773 ± 106 mm, respectively, with an average value that exceeds by about 80 mm that of the IPCC in the reference Shared Socio-economic Pathways and different global warming levels. Finally, the projections indicate that about 19.000 km2 of the considered Mediterranean coasts will be more exposed to risk of inundation for the next decades, leading to enhanced impacts on the environment, human activities and infrastructures, thus suggesting the need for concrete actions to support vulnerable populations to adapt to the expected SL rise and coastal hazards by the end of this century.

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