Lionello, P., & Scarascia, L. (2020). The relation of climate extremes with global warming in the Mediterranean region and its north versus south contrast. Regional Environmental Change20(1), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01610-z

Abstract

This study uses the results of 28 CMIP5 global climate projections to link regional climate extremes in the Mediterranean region to the global mean annual surface temperature change. It shows that global warming will further increase the existing difference in intensity of precipitation and hydrological extremes between north and south Mediterranean areas (SMed and NMed, respectively), while the increase/decrease of warm/cold temperature extremes will be only marginally larger in the SMed. The Simple daily precipitation intensity index (SDII) and the total precipitation during very wet days (R95pTOT) are already larger in the NMed than in the SMed; they will increase with global warming at a rate of approximately 0.1 mm/K and 5 mm/K, respectively, in the NMed, with no significant change in the SMed. The maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) is already larger in the SMed than in the NMed and will increase more in the former than in the latter (rates are about 8 days/K and 5 days/K, respectively). Global warming will not affect the difference of maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD), which is presently larger in the NMed than in the SMed and will decrease at a similar rate (about 0.5 days/K) in both areas. Changes of temperature extremes (warm nights, TN90p, and cold days, TX10p) will be similar in the north and south Mediterranean, though marginally larger in several areas of the SMed than in the NMed. Their increase will be dramatic and with a 4 K global warming almost all nights will be warm and there will be no cold days.

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