Environmental change contributes to intra-state conflict risk in specific contexts including poverty, institutions, and poor state capacity.

Environmental changes could increase inter-state conflicts or cooperation, depending on the ability and resources of the existing institutional frameworks to accommodate these changes.

The compound effects of conflict and climate hazards may lead to a vicious circle of temporally- and spatially-dependent risks that amplify the vulnerability of exposed societies and further increase the likelihood of conflict.

Climate adaptation initiatives may foster cooperation if carefully planned but may also increase the risk of conflict if poorly designed.